Overview
In the International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) Reference case, transportation sector delivered energy consumption increases
at an annual average rate of 1.4%, from 104 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2012 to 155 quadrillion Btu in 2040.
Transportation energy demand growth occurs almost entirely in regions outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (non-OECD), with transportation demand roughly flat in OECD regions—largely reflecting different expectations
for economic growth in developing regions compared with developed regions.
In 2012, OECD nations accounted for 55% of the world’s total transportation energy consumption, and the non-OECD nations
accounted for 45% (Figure 8-1). In 2020, the OECD and non-OECD shares of world transportation energy use are projected to be
equal. Non-OECD demand for transportation fuels continues to outpace OECD demand, and in 2040 the non-OECD regions are
expected to account for 61% of global transportation energy consumption. In the non-OECD regions, where 80% of the world’s
population resides, transportation energy demand nearly doubles, from 47 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 94 quadrillion Btu in 2040,
with an average annual increase of 2.5%. In several of the non-OECD regions, energy consumption in light duty vehicles accounts
for the bulk of the increase in total transportation energy consumption, as economic growth raises standards of living and, in turn,
the demand for personal transportation.